PREDICTING ELECTIONS FROM POLLS

There are times when I think I am deceiving myself. I post many articles on my blog site; firetreepub.bolgspot.com. Almost inevitable, I write them in strong support of positions against this or that; racism, radical religious positions, excess of individual money in politics, support of the anti Citizens United decision, failure of Congress to legislate, voter suppression, defunding public schools,  anti-unionism, and a long, long list of etceteras. In all I have written slightly over 2900 articles and have received a few more than 95,000-page views of which I am proud; however, I somehow, feel I may be suffering from self-deception.

After writing an article on voter suppression, for example, I feel good that I have called the problem of racial bias to the attention of at least some voters. Perhaps I did. When I write about what appears to be racial bias of North Carolina Senators Thom Tillis and Richard Burr by tying them to the despicable legacy of Jessie Helms, I feel I have hurt their chances of being re-elected—of course, I realize my influence would only have a very, very minor impact. For example on March 19, I posted a blog, Jessie Helms Is Alive and Well in North Carolina. I realize that I actually helped and not hurt them in their voted getting efforts. Consider this, Jessie Helms, now dead, was an overt racist who was re-elected by the people of this state repeatedly. When I was at the polls in 2014, the year the voters elected Tom Tillis senator, I saw most of the people voting at the poll were older white men and women. Over the years, I have learned from talking to these type people in North Carolina, yes stereotyping, they are raciest—the Jessie Helm voters. By pointing out what I think is the truth about Tillis and Burr, I am not hurting them as I want to do but I am helping them.

When I go over the list of social issues, I can see that I may be helping radicals on any issue after issue as I am helping Tillis and Burr. I think most people abhor racism, support same-sex marriage, support the right to abortion, oppose voter suppression, opposed to war in the Middle East, are anti-semantic, think politicians should compromise, and a long list of etceteras as I mentioned before. Most polls would indicate I am right; however, if that is the case why can I be so wrong about the outcome of elections.  How could voters elect Tom Tillis and Richard Burr to anything? Presumably, the same people who are polled are the ones who vote.

I can understand this only by falling back on the rule of 20; that is one in five. It is irrelevant if the ratio is correct if the concept is valid. Look at dividing the general population into five parts. Only one fifth is racist, one fifth feel abortion is a sin, one-fifth who think unions are bad; now throw a fifth who think same-sex marriage is evil, and another fifth who support the Citizen United decision. These intense people, by nature, vote on only one issue. I have only mentions six issues and have already reached 120% of the population. Add to this the idea that by posting certain articles condemning each of these things, I may be “aiding abetting the enemy”. I do not think I change minds, but I may be driving some further and further into their narrow little 20% holes of misguided reason. 

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