Disease prevention and better treatments have had a direct
effect on life span and will continue to have an effect until humankind has
reached the genetic limits. We are not dying of disease but more and more of
old age, what ever that is. The developing disparity between length of physical
life and length of productive or working life is obvious. It is not just
physiological it is also mental attitude—colored by the moral hazard of a
highly desired early retirement. Using
human height as an example to explain the concept, height is genetically determined.
Height is a stochastic attribute. Any
given individual will grow taller with the “proper diet” but can only grow as
tall as his DNA/RNA will permit. As variable as it is, and as predetermined as
it is, we would expect our population average height would increase with better
nutrition. Therefore, we have little but some control. Human height is variable
and depends, for example, to a limited extent on diet. A basketball fan for a
father does not mean that good food will allow his son to grow to a 7-feet
height. Obviously, there are things over which we do not have control; height varies
with gender. Although the female average height is shorter than the average
male height, there are females that are taller then most males and visa versa.
Just like height, my premise is that human life span is stochastic
and is approaching a genetic limit, which I assumed is about 120 years. I would
expect on average we would live to be 120 years old when we stop dying of
disease (and war). With that in mind, the expression long term planning takes
on different meaning. To do that, we have to find what it is that contributes
to long life but especially our working life or are we destined to set around
like vegetables after we reach 80 or 90 or 100 years of age. Height is comparatively
simple in concept; all we have to do is to put together a huge partial differential
equation with each factor to arrive at an answer for final height, a figure
that has little species significance. Life is different; we do not seem to have
the slightest idea of what the contributing factors to long working life might
be. It seems that longevity and physical height are spectacularly different in
this aspect. We cannot continue to turn our backs on the problem of longevity
nor can we allow our old people to starve on the streets. Height has little to
do with fundamental social organization but longevity does; conservatives tell
us an ant colony without workers has no future, yet progressives tell us a
society that does not take care of its elderly is without a heart.
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